Manhattan Real Estate Market Quarterly Report: Q3 2019

Buyers continued to find improved value in the Manhattan market during Third Quarter 2019. Last quarter proved to be an anomaly, when the impending state mansion and transfer tax changes drove a rush to close high-end deals and spiked price statistics. With prices lower, the number of sales may be stabilizing. Second quarter seems to have “borrowed” from third quarter’s activity, but when combined, second and third quarter closings in 2019 actually exceeded 2018 by 4%. Meanwhile, buyers also have more choice: inventory rose for the sixteenth consecutive quarter.

This quarter, closed sales fell 4% year-over-year to 3,146 closings, the lowest third quarter in Manhattan since 2009. This decline was driven by a 13% drop in resale condo sales. In a positive sign, resale co-op sales held steady year-over-year and improved 7% versus the prior quarter. New development sales actually improved 2% from last year. Signed contracts moderated, but only by 2% annually.

With sales down, active listings grew 3% year-over-year to over 7,400 units and average days on market rose nearly half-a-month to 112 days, each seven-year highs. However, both statistics were down versus Second Quarter 2019.

After reaching a record high last quarter, price statistics fell back to earth. In Third Quarter 2019, median price fell 8% to a four-year low of $1.010M while average price dropped 13% to $1.653M, a five-year low. Price per square foot figures also dropped, but by a lesser amount. These declines were exaggerated by Second Quarter’s “poaching” of luxury sales (there was a 25% drop in closings over $2M, plus a temporary spike in new development closings.

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